The time it took to decide what to write this week has been the shortest yet. Usually, it takes me a couple of days to mull over the possible topics and I would sometimes throw whatever I had decided to write out after a last-minute burst of inspiration.
Today's topic however was decided almost as soon as the last one was sent out because of a comment one of my friends made after reading it.
She said, “In fact, it reminds me so much of myself. I think maybe I might even be a 3rd order thinker. Mehn, I try to see the very end of a decision before ever I take it”. Read here for context if you have no idea what I’m talking about.
I told her while it’s good to cover your basis, trying to get to the end of a decision can lead to analysis paralysis and inaction.
So I’m going to be writing about how to get to the “sweet spot” of not having enough information and having too much information when making decisions. That will be the primary topic but for good measure, I’m tossing in another mental model( mental models are frameworks that help us with decision making)
The 2 mental models I’m writing about have been associated with some heavy hitters so we are going to be in good company. (wink)
The first mental model is the 40-70 rule. This was made popular by the former head of US military forces and former Secretary of State, Colin Powell. I imagine being head of the military and secretary of state for the United States must mean making a whole lot of very important decisions daily so if the 40-70 rule is one of the tricks up his sleeves…. I’m listening.
He says that each time you want to make a decision, make sure you have no less than 40% and not more than 70% of the information you need to make that decision.
This means that if you have anywhere from between 50% to 70% of the information you need you can “go”. If you have less than 40% you are “gambling” or shooting from the hip in the words of Mr Powell and more than 70% won’t really make much of a difference statistically other than making you dillydally.
For leaders, two things are considered when making a decision; speed and accuracy. With less than 40% you have speed on your side and with 70% you are closer to accuracy. You need both, hence the sweet spot.
Back to my friend’s comment. In trying to get above 70% aka 3rd order thinking according to her, she would most likely be going past the 70% mark. She would spend a lot of time getting information that might not necessarily improve her outcomes rather the chances of overwhelm becomes real.
Leaders like Powell are able to get a lot done because they are not waiting to be at 100% information-wise instead they take informed action with above-average information. They are willing to stand by their decisions and correct them if they gather more information along the way. One of the key traits of leaders is decisiveness.
You are probably wondering “how do I know when I have about 70% of the information I need?” You would need to create a criterion of what the most important factors for the decision are and prioritise them. Then ask the right people the right questions.
The second mental model is the Regret Minimization Framework by moneybag, Jeff Bezos. Only a “geek” will actually come up with a framework to minimize regret.
Jeff Bezos with his framework asks you to do the following:
Travel into your future and visualise your 80-year-old self
Imagine 80 years old you evaluating your life.
Ask yourself “will I regret not doing this in x years time?”. Will he/she regret that you didn’t take that action regardless of whether it failed or succeed?
One of the gifts age gives us is perspective. How many of us have looked back at some of the things that were such a big deal at some time in the past and wondered why we made such a fuss. Age gives you clarity on what is important and what isn't.
Bezo’s framework removes the emotional entanglements we would normally have when making decisions by letting our older and hopefully wiser future selves decide.
It lends objectivity to the process then making it black or white and therefore requiring a yes or no answer. Yes, you will regret it if you don’t take action or, no you won't. No harm no foul.
Regret is such a nasty thing. It leaves a very bitter taste in ones mouth so while we can never truly avoid it, it makes sense to keep it at bay.
To improve our chances of regret minimization, we need to intentionally think about both what we want out of life and the type of life we want to lead. And then make sure that the daily decisions we make are leading in the direction of that life.
If you want to live a life full of wonder and adventure, not taking that job opportunity abroad might lead to regrets later in life. If you want to be an entrepreneur, not starting that business because of the safety of a regular paycheck might make 80 years old you not too happy.
For Bezos, when he put the decision to join the internet revolution and test his idea of selling books online through his regret minimization framework, he was convinced that he would regret not doing it at 80 even if it failed. We know how that story ends right? Amazon is a behemoth!
So there you have it. Two more decision making feathers to add to your hat.
Keep going,
Ije.
PS: my nephew asked me if I signout with keep going because of my name. My full name is Ijeoma. It means literally safe journey in Igbo but contextually it’s a form of prayer wishing its bearer or the person on the receiving end (It’s often said to people travelling) a good journey in life. A pleasant life.
I told him, no that wasn't my thinking when I swapped Happy Zigzagging with Keep Going but it works. It gives the signout a whole new layer of meaning. So Ijeoma to you all as you zigzag your way through life.
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"Ifey, Just take a decision, A decision is better than no decision " This was advice given to me by my supervisor when I took a leadership position. As a leader, I was often struggling to make/commit to a decision less it fails. But what was undermining my team n sabotaging my leadership was my delay/failure to take decisions.
It's often easier to course correct than not take a decision at all.
Your article even helps me further by your 40/70 principle. Strong work Ije. Keep the ideas coming.
Analysis paralysis .Oh my 🤦🏽♂️..I guess we need more analysis catalysis 😊. Great read. Thanks as always Ijay